Entries Tagged as 'Economy'

Black Friday

It’s Black Friday… though I suspect with this economy most retailers will continue to see red rather than black on the balance sheets this year…

Oh, and just because the retails “report” good numbers – keep watch for the “revisions” for the sales numbers that are likely to follow.

Reality sucks almost as much as the economy.

Black Friday on Wikipedia

Originally posted 2010-11-26 02:00:58.

Quantitative Easing Explained

Originally posted 2010-11-20 02:00:12.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Thus far the collapse of the US housing market and [near] failure of Frannie Mae and Freddie Mac have cost US tax payers $145B… and it’s far from over.

The New York Stock Exchange have announced that the two companies will be delisted from the exchange next month (the stocks had been trading at the $1 per share mark — the minimum threshold to remain on the exchange — for over two years (since before the federal government took control of the companies).

The Federal Housing Finance Agency states that the delisting “does not constitute any reflection on either [company’s] current performance or future direction.”

Right…

Fannie and Freddie were created by an act of Congress decades ago… as private companies.  They buy mortgages from banks, re-sell them to investors, and guarantee to pay off the loans if borrowers default.

And, of course, for the last decade they’ve been buying junk mortgages that banks irresponsibly made to people who couldn’t possible afford them on vastly over-valued property.

Of course, the bank’s weren’t the losers; the shareholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac largely lost their proverbial shirts — but the tax payers bailed out the banks (and continue to fund Fannie and Freddie — and they continue to lose money).

Congress will have to decide how to handle this mess.  A GAO report last fall included these points.

  1. Create a government agency to buy mortgages and re-sell them to investors. This would eliminate the profit motive that, some critics say, drove Fannie and Freddie to take the risks that led to their demise. It would also continue to subsidize the mortgage market, making it easier for Americans to buy homes. On the other hand, the government would still be putting lots of taxpayer money at risk to subsidize the housing market.
  2. Reconstitute Fannie and Freddie as government-sponsored enterprises, similar to the way they were before. This might be accompanied by new rules limiting the risks the companies can take. Still, this would bring back the problematic ambiguities of having private, government-sponsored companies.
  3. Dramatically reduce the government’s role in the mortgage business. In this model, there would essentially be no replacement for Fannie and Freddie. But the government might still take some role, such as selling insurance to cover mortgage default. This would reduce (but not eliminate) the risk to taxpayers, but it might also make it more difficult for people to get mortgages.

Originally posted 2010-06-18 02:00:20.

Occupy Wall Street

Occupy Wall Street
Occupy Wall Street
By Adam Zyglis, The Buffalo News

Originally posted 2011-10-10 02:00:28.

Hidden Evil

Many of my friends and I have engaged in intellectual discussions about the evils of society and what most needs to be fixed.

Views of what’s evil, though, largely depend on your perspective — social liberals might call something evil that a fiscal conservative feels is simply just; and vice-versa.

If you’re a conspiracy buff you’ll enjoy reading through the TheHiddenEvil.com.  Volume I contains a number of factoids, and draws interesting conclusions (I’m certainly not going to say I agree with any or all of them).  Volume II builds on Volume I to make some fairly remarkable assertions — of maybe they’re just hard to believe (or hard to read without a giggle or two at least).

With disinformation an accepted practice of government, organized religion, and business it’s always hard to say definitively what is true and what is a shade of gray.

Originally posted 2010-01-22 02:00:23.

US Poverty

The Census Bureau released new numbers on the US poverty rate yesterday — 14.3% last year; the highest since 1994.

Largely due to the rising unemployment amount working age individuals in this country (even the US government admits unemployment to be in double digits — and we can all be sure that they minimize the numbers as much as they can through their creative accounting and adjustments).

13.9%, or 39.8 million people in 2008 to 14.3%, or 43.6 million people in 2009… and you can be sure that number will be even higher in 2010.

The report also showed the number of Americans without health coverage rose form 15.4% to 16.7% (or 50.7 million people); mainly because of the loss of employment and employer-provided health insurance.  And the new health care provisions were passed; the main provisions won’t take effect until 2014.

Because of the Recovery Act and many other programs providing tax relief and income support to a majority of working families — and especially those most in need — millions of Americans were kept out of poverty last year.
· President Barrack Obama

The really incredible thing is that the numbers were expected to be much worse — and in fact it’s likely that increases in Social Security payments and expansion of unemployment insurance through federal extensions helped keep the numbers in check.

Clearly those earning over $250,000 need to have their tax cuts renewed!

Originally posted 2010-09-17 02:00:40.

Economic Stimulus

It amazes me how the United States Government can make simple things so complicated… and that it always seems that laws to benefit the greater good cannot be passed without benefiting special interests.

I say this is a very simple thing to handle.

The House and Senate need to approve an appropriation bill which allocates a given amount of money to an economic stimulus effort.  With that they can define the types of spending (broadly) that are acceptable.  Further, they can designate that government entities (federal, state, local, etc) can submit a request to a panel composed of four Representatives (two Republican, two Democrat), two Senators (one Republican, one Democrat), and the Vice President to review and approve.

Further, they could specify that each and very request must be for a single project; well specified with goals and measurable objectives.  That each and every proposal submitted must be acted on within ninety days, and that all actions and meeting of the committee must be open to the public (and news media, complete with cameras and microphones).

Congress could allocate more funding to the program as needed, or elect to stop funding it at any point in the future (but couldn’t pull back funds once granted).

Additional there should be a requirement on any entity that receives funds that they will abide by the letter of Federal law in allocating work which is wholly or partially paid for by the funds, and that any failure to use the funds as specified will require repayment with interest.

Look here, in a few hundred words I’ve outlined a framework that is totally transparent, highly adaptable, and fully accountable…

The whole problem is that we’ve changed nothing in Washington.  While I believe that Barrack Obama wants to change the way government governs, most of the individuals in Washington only wish to benefit themselves.

We gave Barrack Obama an overwhelming charter to change America for the better, and if each and everyone of us doesn’t stand up now and tell our Representatives and Senators that they are either part of the solution, or they are part of the problem and will be dealt with severely.

One thing is for sure, things will change — we will either choose to make the changes, or the changes will be the result of social and economic upheaval.  But if we’re going to have the choice, it has to be soon.

Originally posted 2009-02-08 01:00:01.

Ups and Downs

Just as the trucking industry tells us that delivery volume has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the years; retailers tell us that consumers are beginning to spend less.

And the Commerce Department announced that the recession was deeper than previously estimated.

Who’s doing the estimates?

Anyone with any sense knew the economy was in bad shape, and that it would likely take a number of years before there was any real improvement, and potentially a decade before we truly recovered.

You have to ask yourself are the people in Washington DC and on Wall Street stupid — or do they just think the American public are so stupid they will believe anything?

Personally I feel this is a catastrophic event in World history that requires leadership to acknowledge it’s severity and begin making long term plans for recovery while creating short term safety nets to keep society afloat.

Just one more sign that anyone who’s been in office in this country isn’t part of the solution — they’re part of the problem.

INCUMBENTS

Originally posted 2010-08-05 02:00:45.

CEO Pay Cut

I don’t think any of them need to worry about landing in the poor house, but here’s a list of the twenty largest pay cuts this year.  I guess the economy must be down — perhaps we can take up a collection to help them all out.


  1. Lloyd C. Blankfein, -$40.1 million
    Company: Goldman Sachs Group (GS)
    2009 salary: $600,000 (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $262,657 (down $40.1 million from 2008)
    Lloyd C. Blankfein
  2. Vikram S. Pandit, -$38.1 million
    Company: Citigroup (C)
    2009 salary: $125,001 (down $833,332 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $3,750 (down $37.3 million from 2008)
    Vikram S. Pandit
  3. James Dimon, -$34.5 million
    Company: JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
    2009 salary: $1,000,000 (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $265,708 (down $34.5 million from 2008)
    James Dimon
  4. Robert A. Iger, -$29.5 million
    Company: Walt Disney (DIS)
    2009 salary: $2,038,462* (up $38,462 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $19.5 million (down $29.5 million from 2008)
    Robert A. Iger
  5. David M. Cote, -$15.9 million
    Company: Honeywell International (HON)
    2009 salary: $1,800,000 (down $25,962 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $11 million (down $15.9 million from 2008)
    David M. Cote
  6. Richard H. Anderson, -$15.7 million
    Company: Delta Airlines (DAL)
    2009 salary: $600,000 (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $1.2 million (down $15.7 million from 2008)
    Richard H. Anderson
  7. Louis C. Camilleri, -$12.4 million
    Company: Philip Morris International (PM)
    2009 salary: $1,500,000 (down $67,308 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $23 million (down $12.3 million from 2008)
    Louis C. Camilleri
  8. Rupert Murdoch, -$12.1 million
    Company: News Corp. (NWSA)
    2009 salary: $8,100,000* (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $9.8 million (down $12.1 million from 2008)
    Rupert Murdoch
  9. Kenneth I. Chenault, -$11.3 million
    Company: American Express (AXP)
    2009 salary: $1,201,923 (down $48,077 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $15.4 million (down $11.2 million from 2008)
    Kenneth I. Chenault
  10. Mark V. Hurd, -$9.8 million
    Company: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
    2009 salary: $1,268,750* (down $181,250 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $22.9 million (down $9.6 million from 2008)
    Mark V. Hurd
  11. Kenneth D. Lewis, -9.0 million
    Company: Bank of America (BAC)
    2009 salary: 0* (down $1.5 million from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $32,171 (down $9.0 million from 2008)
    Kenneth D. Lewis
  12. Stephen A. Roell, -$8.4 million
    Company: Johnson Controls (JCI)
    2009 salary: $1,371,500* (up $46,500 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $5.1 million (down $8.5 million from 2008)
    Stephen A. Roell
  13. James W. Owens, -$7.9 million
    Company: Caterpillar (CAT)
    2009 salary: $1,550,004* (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $5.2 million (down $7.9 million from 2008)
    James W. Owens
  14. John B. Hess, -$7.8 million
    Company: Hess (HES)
    2009 salary: $1,500,000 (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $12.1 million (down $7.8 million from 2008)
    John B. Hess
  15. John T. Chambers, -$6.0 million
    Company: Cisco Systems (CSCO)
    2009 salary: $375,000* (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $12.4 million (down $6.0 million from 2008)
    John T. Chambers
  16. Miles D. White, -$3.2 million
    Company: Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
    2009 salary: $1,852,319 (up $56,848 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $20.1 million (down $3.2 million from 2008)
    Miles D. White
  17. Daniel R. Hesse, -$3.1 million
    Company: Sprint Nextel (S)
    2009 salary: $1,200,000 (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $11.1 million (down $3.1 million from 2008)
    Daniel R. Hesse
  18. Thomas M. Ryan, -$3.0 million
    Company: CVS Caremark (CVS)
    2009 salary: $1,400,000 (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $14.8 million (down $3.0 million from 2008)
    Thomas M. Ryan
  19. Ivan G. Seidenberg, -$2.9 million
    Company: Verizon Communications (VZ)
    2009 salary: $2,100,000 (same as 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $14.9 million (down $2.9 million from 2008)
    Ivan G. Seidenberg
  20. Frederick W. Smith, -$2.7 million
    Company: FedEx (FDX)
    2009 salary: $1,355,028* (down $75,438 from 2008)
    2009 bonus, options and other comp: $6.4 million (down $2.6 million from 2008)
    Frederick W. Smith

Source: Equilar Inc.

Originally posted 2010-08-22 02:00:27.

It’s not our fault we went bankrupt…

I wasn’t sure it it was a new daytime sitcom or a hearing when former Lehman CEO Dick Fuld delivered his 1680 work prepared testimony.

Lehman was a strong company that had corrected it’s problems:

In retrospect, there is no question we made some poorly timed business decisions and investments, but we addressed those mistakes and got ourselves back to a strong equity position … There is nothing about this profile that would indicate a bankrupt company.

The market and the public were wrong to lose confidence in Lehman:

Lehman’s demise was caused by uncontrollable market forces and the incorrect perception and accompanying rumors that Lehman did not have sufficient capital to support its investments.

The government was at fault for not banning naked short selling or allowing Lehman to convert to a bank holding company or let it take deposits:

Each of those requests was denied at the time. Tellingly, though, each measure was later implemented in some form for other investment banks during the days and weeks following Lehman’s bankruptcy filing.

Lehman was the victim:

This loss of confidence, although unjustified and irrational, became a self-fulfilling prophecy and culminated in a classic run on the bank starting on September 10, 2008, that then led Lehman to file for bankruptcy four days later, in the early morning hours of September 15.

For more comedy (without my satire — and please don’t think I’m serious about anything I’ve written in this post) see the links below; and don’t laugh too hard.

Dick Fuld
Repo 105
Lehman bankruptcy attorney
New York Fed general counsel

Originally posted 2010-09-02 02:00:11.